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Making Market Calls: Why It Is Not As Easy As It Seems


It is easy to make a market call. Whether you are correct in your analysis or not is a completely different animal all in itself. There are a million ways to determine a point of view, as we are all different. Thus, market views realistically lend themselves to a finite, but large, amount of potential perceptions, as we all have different minds, realities, backgrounds, etc. It can easily become an exercise in philosophy, but we wont go there.

Now, what does this mean? It means that varied market participants can play the market on the same side for completely different reasons. However, that does not mean that one is more correct than the other. That is just the way the market works. It will go wherever it is going to go. What one  thinks or believes is irrelevant in all reality. Reality is you will make correct and incorrect market calls. The rate at which you are correct or incorrect ultimately depends on the process you implement to make a decision given the market environment.

As we have all heard before: the market is like a big ocean, you either swim with the current or drown. Catching the turn of the waves is no easy feat either. How you develop a process and implement it depends on many factors. The first, and most important one, in my humble opinion,  is knowing yourself. I am sure that most have heard this one before, but many might think to themselves: what does that even mean? I know I did when I first read that line. I will try to be as simple and concise as I can.

Who are you? How are you the way you are? What has made you like that? Are you naturally patient or impatient?  Do you have mettle or not? Are you adaptive or not? Are you receptive to change or not? Are you studious or not? 

I hope that these initial series of questions help you in attaining the truthful answer that you need in order to somewhat answer that one question. Knowing who you truthfully are is not easy, and it took me years to kind of learn the answer to that question, and I still learn something new with every new experience that I have. This is just to let you know that we are not truly static beings; it is just not the case. This first question is what allows you to pivot accordingly when adding to, or taking away from your process. 

This is where the true difficulty lies in making market calls, as far as I am concerned. As having a process that allows you to identify opportunities in the market, whether on a 1 minute time frame, or on a weekly time frame, is just something that you need. I have learned this the hard way, which is usually the best way. Saying x is going to y because of z is not a process that lends itself to successful repetition. That is the key to being a permanent fixture in this business, or any business, repetition.




  1. MaxxPayme says:

    Market calls will take years off your life, or dollars off your bank account. Or both!

    Speaking for a friend….


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